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How Tesla’s gamble on Chinese car production could reap huge rewards



With the approval of the Obama administration, an electric car company that received a $529 million federal government loan guarantee is assembling its first line of cars in Finland, saying it could not find a facility in the United States capable of doing the work.




How Tesla’s risky bet on making cars in China could pay off



Energy Department officials said such loans, by their nature, are risky because the department is financing innovative, potentially game-changing technologies that could deliver long-term benefits. They said neither firm has missed a loan payment, or sought help from the department to restructure their lending agreements.


It's true that Tesla is executing very well, with deliveries soaring and profitability improving. In addition, the automaker looks poised to grow its business rapidly yet again in 2020 -- and 2021 looks promising as well. But investors should keep in mind that much of Tesla's exciting growth prospects are already baked into this stock, making this a particularly risky bet.


Instead, in light of COVID-19, the need to stimulate total new car purchases has prompted a range of new financial incentives introduced across major markets, some of which clearly favour EVs. For example, in Germany the government has temporarily lowered VAT from 19 per cent to 16 per cent on low-emission vehicles and doubled existing subsidies to almost $7,000 on EVs costing less than $45,000.25 In France, private consumers who buy electric cars (that cost up to $50,000) now receive an almost $8,000 incentive, up from around $7,000; those looking to get rid of their old cars now receive double the previous value offered by a scrappage scheme, which was designed to get less-efficient models off the road.26 Under both schemes, a consumer replacing an older car for a new EV could be eligible for up to $13,500. Meanwhile, in China, EV subsidies and tax break policies set to expire in 2020 were extended to 2022 in a direct response to the economic impact of COVID-19.27 In the long term, the viability of financial incentives will need to be reconsidered as the economic recovery from the pandemic becomes clearer and governments try to manage other concerns, such as potential lost fuel-tax revenues.


With work travel being a key component of our segmentation, it is also worth considering how COVID-19 is changing how we travel to and for work. The recent research highlights that over two-thirds of consumers plan to limit their use of public transportation in the future, and well over half plan to limit their use of ride-sharing apps. In the short term, this will likely accelerate demand for cheap second-hand cars, but in the long term this could translate into increased demand for EVs within Segment A.


Founded back in 2014, NIO (NYSE: NIO) manufactures premium electric vehicles for the international market. While its products have generally been met with critical acclaim, the company has also developed a reputation for being risky and unpredictable. Some commentators fear that its valuation is based on a vague notion of "potential", rather than its current financial performance -- although perhaps a similar charge could be made against Tesla itself.


History has shown, however, it is risky to bet against Tesla. For all the money short-sellers now are making, they lost billions more in the previous decade. And Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas is among those who are confident the automaker will rebound yet again.


WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) - If Volkswagen realizes its ambition of becoming the global leader in electric cars, it will be thanks to a radical and risky bet born out of the biggest calamity in its history.


With regulators and lawmakers, rather than customers, dictating what kind of vehicles can hit the road, analysts at Deloitte say the industry could produce 14 million electric cars for which there is no consumer demand. 2ff7e9595c


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